* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/24/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 57 57 56 57 52 51 44 39 31 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 57 57 56 57 52 51 44 39 31 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 55 56 58 59 60 58 56 51 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 16 18 19 24 27 29 30 28 25 28 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 0 -3 -3 -8 1 0 4 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 216 195 208 220 213 208 238 237 259 258 293 288 305 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 132 132 132 133 136 139 141 142 142 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 109 110 110 109 110 113 116 117 117 118 119 119 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 6 6 12 8 10 3 10 5 13 8 700-500 MB RH 63 63 61 56 58 52 40 35 26 24 24 25 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 23 23 23 20 19 20 19 21 21 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 42 62 65 57 62 94 73 69 55 -39 -69 -72 -88 200 MB DIV 84 116 97 72 55 33 4 4 -15 -6 -18 -13 -7 700-850 TADV 12 8 0 -1 1 6 0 -1 -7 10 -8 8 -5 LAND (KM) 236 222 209 208 203 151 93 24 14 11 55 77 70 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 86.5 86.6 86.7 87.0 87.2 87.8 88.4 89.2 90.0 90.8 91.4 92.2 93.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 13 14 14 15 13 10 14 15 14 15 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -4. -4. -5. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 2. 1. -6. -11. -19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/24/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042012 DEBBY 06/24/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/24/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)