* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/25/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 36 35 32 27 25 19 20 18 21 23 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 36 35 32 27 25 19 20 18 19 23 V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 36 36 36 36 36 34 33 32 32 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 18 26 27 25 24 22 22 14 15 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 3 0 -5 0 0 3 5 3 6 5 3 SHEAR DIR 249 240 234 240 252 255 288 283 305 302 303 269 260 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 124 124 123 123 122 122 123 122 121 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 102 103 102 101 101 101 100 100 101 99 100 98 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 -50.8 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 12 9 6 8 2 8 4 10 6 14 9 700-500 MB RH 60 58 51 50 46 38 35 28 31 31 32 32 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 23 20 20 20 18 17 17 15 16 15 15 18 850 MB ENV VOR 39 78 94 92 86 72 23 0 -38 -41 -57 -36 -48 200 MB DIV 66 79 69 27 -1 10 1 -4 -3 12 -2 26 -5 700-850 TADV 0 0 3 1 0 2 0 0 -3 5 3 7 -4 LAND (KM) 122 116 111 106 101 90 70 61 50 41 9 -9 -25 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.2 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 85.5 85.4 85.3 85.2 85.2 85.1 85.0 85.0 84.9 84.9 84.8 84.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -8. -13. -15. -21. -20. -22. -19. -17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/25/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042012 DEBBY 06/25/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/25/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)