* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/26/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 38 36 32 31 29 27 28 31 30 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 38 32 29 29 27 26 27 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 35 30 32 33 35 38 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 23 20 25 25 16 18 5 1 10 11 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 3 3 -1 6 0 8 9 12 5 6 0 SHEAR DIR 262 260 262 275 285 291 304 324 137 191 220 240 270 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 124 124 124 121 119 119 118 118 117 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 103 103 104 104 102 100 100 99 99 98 96 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 4 3 7 3 8 5 12 10 16 12 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 44 42 41 37 35 35 33 34 36 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 19 17 17 17 16 15 15 13 14 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 83 90 72 42 20 2 -26 -14 -11 -16 -55 -71 -73 200 MB DIV 34 32 16 6 27 15 17 7 -10 -9 -1 -6 7 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 1 5 0 -2 9 9 24 12 18 8 LAND (KM) 107 113 102 80 58 -17 -57 35 128 230 311 323 322 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.5 31.0 31.7 LONG(DEG W) 84.4 84.2 84.0 83.8 83.5 82.6 81.7 80.8 79.9 78.9 78.0 77.0 75.9 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 2 1 0 1 12 18 9 7 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -11. -13. -12. -9. -10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/26/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042012 DEBBY 06/26/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/26/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)