* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/26/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 30 27 25 24 22 24 24 26 27 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 28 26 25 23 25 25 27 28 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 29 28 27 30 29 29 30 32 34 36 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 23 24 23 18 15 5 3 2 2 4 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 2 3 -1 -1 3 6 11 11 14 6 8 11 SHEAR DIR 262 261 273 280 282 293 280 319 281 30 355 328 194 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.7 24.9 24.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 122 120 120 121 119 116 114 110 104 98 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 102 101 101 103 102 98 96 95 89 84 83 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 3 2 5 4 6 6 11 10 12 10 13 700-500 MB RH 48 45 43 44 45 46 46 45 43 45 44 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 16 16 15 14 14 14 12 15 14 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 93 67 35 16 8 -22 -34 -53 -36 -51 -52 -62 -61 200 MB DIV 46 25 14 32 30 32 24 -3 0 6 11 22 24 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 6 7 9 16 13 14 20 30 29 53 LAND (KM) 36 -3 -43 -87 -39 97 276 352 379 399 440 463 462 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.5 30.9 31.5 32.4 33.4 34.5 LONG(DEG W) 83.6 83.1 82.6 82.1 81.6 80.2 78.4 77.2 76.3 74.8 72.7 71.5 71.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 7 7 5 6 9 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 0 0 6 12 6 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -5. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. -11. -11. -9. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/26/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042012 DEBBY 06/26/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/26/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)