* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/27/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 26 25 23 23 25 25 25 25 23 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 30 29 27 27 28 29 29 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 30 29 29 29 30 31 32 34 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 23 20 15 13 8 5 8 14 12 17 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 -1 0 5 0 12 8 10 0 1 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 263 277 280 284 296 302 291 285 295 337 331 339 320 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.4 25.6 25.2 24.5 23.6 23.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 121 120 120 120 117 109 106 101 96 98 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 102 102 102 102 104 101 94 91 87 84 87 88 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.0 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 2 2 5 6 3 7 6 10 9 10 7 5 700-500 MB RH 47 42 42 41 43 44 44 44 45 49 48 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 15 15 14 14 15 14 14 16 16 15 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 73 37 14 4 -13 -42 -47 -38 -32 -31 -26 -24 -33 200 MB DIV 23 11 30 11 14 17 1 -2 10 22 15 13 24 700-850 TADV 3 0 7 5 4 8 27 11 28 25 39 25 15 LAND (KM) -7 -47 -87 -19 50 236 385 436 440 476 545 698 684 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.4 31.0 31.8 32.8 34.1 35.7 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 83.1 82.6 82.1 81.4 80.7 78.8 76.8 75.0 73.4 71.8 70.2 67.7 64.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 7 9 8 8 8 9 11 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 1 20 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -5. -5. -5. -5. -7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/27/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042012 DEBBY 06/27/12 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/27/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)