* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC PROXY USED * * DEBBY AL042012 06/27/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 27 27 28 27 27 27 29 30 31 29 V (KT) LAND 30 32 31 31 30 31 30 31 30 32 33 34 32 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 31 30 30 29 30 31 33 35 38 42 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 18 14 18 21 6 1 2 3 7 10 10 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 0 0 4 0 4 8 8 5 4 1 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 280 294 287 289 293 300 182 159 150 204 248 254 282 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.7 25.9 25.2 24.8 24.1 23.4 23.8 23.7 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 122 122 123 122 121 113 106 102 98 95 98 99 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 103 106 105 104 98 91 88 85 84 87 88 80 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 5 5 3 6 6 9 10 11 9 6 3 700-500 MB RH 44 43 42 44 46 44 43 42 41 45 43 49 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 14 15 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 43 14 22 9 -11 -20 -26 -17 -28 -30 -45 -40 -35 200 MB DIV 21 25 21 22 17 20 -5 -5 -27 7 -2 -3 17 700-850 TADV -3 10 8 3 9 11 8 13 10 19 26 41 45 LAND (KM) -32 38 110 212 314 425 496 534 551 630 699 630 589 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.7 31.0 31.7 32.7 34.2 36.1 38.1 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 80.8 80.0 79.0 78.0 75.7 73.7 72.1 70.9 69.2 66.7 63.2 58.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 10 8 7 9 12 15 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 12 21 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/27/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042012 DEBBY 06/27/12 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/27/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)