* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/27/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 28 23 19 16 17 18 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 28 23 19 16 17 18 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 30 31 32 34 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 23 20 21 13 9 3 7 8 6 9 12 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 6 0 -1 1 3 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 301 294 287 281 284 273 47 31 131 255 277 284 281 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.2 25.4 24.7 23.9 23.5 23.5 23.4 22.7 16.1 9.9 POT. INT. (KT) 123 122 122 118 110 104 98 95 95 95 94 78 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 106 108 105 98 92 86 84 83 84 85 75 72 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 2 5 5 3 4 6 6 7 6 6 5 1 0 700-500 MB RH 41 44 45 48 49 44 42 42 38 40 42 46 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 13 10 7 4 4 5 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 21 19 9 -1 -13 -15 3 -3 -8 -42 -67 -84 -38 200 MB DIV 27 35 30 11 28 15 -39 -38 1 -3 1 -4 -2 700-850 TADV 20 5 6 11 11 12 10 20 18 10 17 22 34 LAND (KM) 73 187 300 418 494 614 670 790 809 739 679 446 545 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 29.9 30.1 30.4 30.6 31.2 32.6 34.2 35.5 37.1 38.8 42.7 48.0 LONG(DEG W) 80.4 79.3 78.1 76.4 74.6 71.5 69.5 67.4 65.5 63.1 60.3 54.2 45.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 13 15 14 12 11 11 11 13 22 35 40 HEAT CONTENT 2 21 13 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -11. -14. -13. -12. -13. -18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/27/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042012 DEBBY 06/27/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/27/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)