* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/27/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 38 35 33 32 33 30 28 22 19 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 37 38 35 33 32 33 30 28 22 19 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 38 39 39 38 38 39 39 39 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 16 12 12 6 6 11 5 15 12 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 -2 -2 4 5 1 2 -5 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 291 283 297 310 279 316 348 333 301 300 301 276 273 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.4 25.1 24.6 24.1 23.5 23.5 23.0 20.3 12.3 12.4 POT. INT. (KT) 124 120 116 110 107 103 99 96 96 94 84 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 102 98 95 90 87 85 85 84 77 70 71 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.2 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 7 7 5 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 45 45 50 51 52 55 51 47 53 58 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 14 15 13 12 12 13 11 13 11 14 850 MB ENV VOR 31 21 -3 -29 -42 -43 -21 -17 -29 -46 -82 -77 -44 200 MB DIV 17 33 14 7 2 -36 13 -16 9 2 18 9 13 700-850 TADV 4 5 16 17 15 24 31 21 26 14 -14 0 26 LAND (KM) 199 318 441 527 573 670 755 884 821 658 546 331 677 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 29.7 29.8 30.1 30.4 31.3 32.4 34.0 36.1 38.4 40.8 43.8 47.3 LONG(DEG W) 78.9 77.6 76.3 74.8 73.3 70.6 68.6 66.4 64.2 61.5 58.2 52.1 43.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 11 11 13 15 16 22 31 34 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -17. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -4. -3. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 0. -2. -3. -2. -5. -7. -13. -16. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/27/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042012 DEBBY 06/27/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/27/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)