* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/28/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 33 31 26 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 33 31 26 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 36 36 36 35 33 30 28 27 27 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 10 12 18 20 12 7 4 8 12 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 0 1 -1 0 -3 -2 1 3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 257 250 284 316 9 33 49 84 124 174 208 227 234 SST (C) 24.8 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.0 23.4 23.0 22.6 22.9 21.8 14.4 17.6 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 106 103 102 100 98 93 91 90 93 90 73 78 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 93 91 88 86 81 80 79 83 82 70 73 71 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 7 6 7 8 7 6 4 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 47 44 41 39 37 40 37 40 38 40 44 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 10 8 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -3 -22 -46 -58 -35 -64 -71 -88 -98 -93 -75 -82 200 MB DIV 25 14 -4 -43 -36 -12 9 7 15 7 3 -12 0 700-850 TADV 3 18 26 22 13 12 25 0 14 -6 -16 10 -17 LAND (KM) 549 669 806 900 999 1057 998 901 828 704 550 923 1401 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.7 31.9 32.2 32.5 33.6 34.8 36.2 38.0 40.4 42.8 44.2 44.5 LONG(DEG W) 72.1 70.2 68.3 67.0 65.7 64.1 62.6 60.9 58.6 54.7 48.8 41.8 35.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 14 11 10 8 9 11 16 22 26 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 21 CX,CY: 20/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -9. -15. -18. -20. -22. -25. -28. -31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/28/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042012 DEBBY 06/28/12 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/28/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)