* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/28/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 38 33 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 38 33 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 42 43 42 41 38 35 31 29 27 26 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 10 8 9 11 15 31 36 45 57 54 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 6 0 1 2 4 0 -7 -2 N/A SHEAR DIR 238 260 302 349 3 330 288 253 260 270 278 290 N/A SST (C) 24.2 24.0 24.0 23.5 23.2 22.6 21.7 16.1 9.3 9.7 14.1 12.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 99 99 97 96 93 89 73 66 66 70 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 88 89 87 86 84 80 69 65 65 67 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -52.7 -53.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 39 37 38 40 34 30 37 50 53 62 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 8 7 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -22 -28 -42 -46 -40 -32 -26 -50 5 30 -2 N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -17 -30 -19 -3 13 13 9 -8 3 -20 -21 N/A 700-850 TADV 15 16 16 9 15 19 32 49 7 44 39 43 N/A LAND (KM) 658 758 870 979 968 827 652 444 337 532 829 1175 N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 32.5 32.9 33.8 34.7 37.2 40.2 42.7 44.8 47.0 48.7 50.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.0 68.5 67.0 65.4 63.8 60.3 57.0 53.4 49.7 45.8 41.7 37.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 15 16 17 19 19 18 17 17 17 18 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 20 CX,CY: 19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -3. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -19. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -7. -11. -14. -20. -29. -38. -47. -53. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/28/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042012 DEBBY 06/28/12 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/28/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)