* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/29/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 38 36 33 26 22 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 40 38 36 33 26 22 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 41 41 40 38 36 34 32 32 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 7 7 10 8 12 4 10 16 23 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 8 4 1 -1 2 0 4 4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 252 289 339 360 358 16 36 244 248 265 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 23.8 23.3 23.1 22.8 22.8 22.8 20.7 14.8 14.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 100 98 96 94 93 93 92 83 70 70 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 90 88 86 85 83 82 82 75 67 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.8 -53.6 -54.5 -54.0 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 38 40 39 40 36 27 27 33 47 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 9 6 6 9 9 13 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -26 -45 -54 -46 -35 -45 -109 -122 -68 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -31 -42 -20 11 -7 26 9 -3 -2 16 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 10 4 14 9 9 12 26 16 17 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 770 885 978 964 898 877 820 647 559 627 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 16 16 15 15 15 15 15 16 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 17 CX,CY: 16/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -6. -6. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -7. -14. -18. -16. -19. -21. -24. -26. -29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/29/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/29/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)