* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/29/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 31 30 28 26 25 24 24 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 10 8 9 11 4 7 9 2 17 28 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 -1 0 0 2 6 4 2 -4 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 343 13 30 38 43 62 63 251 282 243 180 207 218 SST (C) 23.5 23.3 23.2 22.9 22.7 22.7 22.9 19.0 19.3 17.3 17.1 16.8 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 95 93 93 91 91 92 94 80 81 75 73 72 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 81 81 80 80 82 85 74 74 70 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -52.7 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 7 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 41 40 39 37 33 37 38 44 47 49 43 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 9 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -43 -37 -36 -39 -40 -92 -97 -91 -100 -118 -137 -157 200 MB DIV -12 5 0 0 22 7 3 6 7 0 23 -6 2 700-850 TADV 13 25 3 10 26 10 25 3 2 31 -1 7 -10 LAND (KM) 1006 1004 998 954 914 883 843 650 818 1154 1457 1721 1608 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.1 34.6 35.3 35.9 37.4 39.1 41.2 42.5 43.0 43.1 43.0 42.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 64.3 63.4 62.4 61.4 58.8 55.1 50.3 44.6 39.4 35.3 31.8 28.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 10 10 12 15 19 21 21 17 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 12. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -12. -18. -21. -21. -23. -23. -26. -31. -37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/29/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 5.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/29/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)