* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DEBBY AL042012 06/29/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 31 29 24 21 17 18 17 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 31 29 24 21 17 18 17 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 34 33 31 29 26 25 24 25 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 11 14 19 16 18 10 9 8 15 22 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 -3 0 0 -1 0 4 1 0 -5 -6 -6 SHEAR DIR 12 24 38 49 59 39 69 130 163 179 190 189 194 SST (C) 23.4 23.2 23.1 22.9 22.7 22.6 22.8 21.4 16.6 18.1 16.5 16.0 15.8 POT. INT. (KT) 94 92 92 90 90 90 93 88 74 76 72 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 82 80 80 79 79 80 82 79 70 71 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 39 42 35 35 46 48 46 44 50 52 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 9 8 6 5 6 6 10 12 14 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -41 -31 -44 -52 -54 -89 -73 -91 -94 -108 -123 -137 200 MB DIV 3 -9 6 11 11 -3 17 15 20 6 44 37 13 700-850 TADV 21 -1 10 17 1 25 -12 26 12 28 13 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1015 1012 1003 974 952 931 850 691 654 885 1152 1376 1576 LAT (DEG N) 33.8 34.3 34.7 35.2 35.6 36.7 38.4 40.5 42.5 43.9 44.8 45.4 45.5 LONG(DEG W) 64.6 63.8 62.9 62.1 61.2 59.1 56.5 52.4 47.3 42.5 38.4 35.1 32.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 9 12 16 20 20 17 14 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -2. 0. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -14. -18. -17. -18. -19. -23. -29. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042012 DEBBY 06/29/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042012 DEBBY 06/29/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)