* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042012 07/04/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 56 62 65 65 63 60 55 52 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 56 62 65 65 63 60 55 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 42 46 48 50 50 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 18 14 15 15 11 10 7 10 7 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 -1 -4 -3 -1 -2 1 0 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 6 15 15 10 14 19 19 15 348 338 347 346 345 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.0 25.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 152 151 149 147 142 140 136 132 131 123 113 104 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 76 76 77 74 76 71 71 68 66 63 60 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 12 13 12 14 14 14 15 16 16 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -34 -33 -28 -24 -18 -12 -13 -16 -16 -13 -26 -37 200 MB DIV 76 38 28 32 30 25 14 26 20 -1 2 -36 -25 700-850 TADV -6 -2 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 2 3 0 LAND (KM) 710 707 713 724 739 807 922 1005 1093 1208 1344 1462 1576 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 44 45 42 29 26 21 10 7 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 25. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 32. 35. 35. 33. 30. 25. 22. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 FOUR 07/04/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)