* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042012 07/04/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 54 60 65 66 65 61 51 47 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 54 60 65 66 65 61 51 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 38 42 46 49 50 49 45 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 8 12 9 5 7 6 5 3 6 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -4 -3 0 2 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 32 32 15 21 18 19 12 19 37 316 314 335 348 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.3 25.6 24.6 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 147 145 143 139 134 130 127 120 109 104 102 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -53.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 73 76 74 72 70 69 66 64 61 61 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 14 14 14 17 17 18 18 20 19 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -31 -21 -16 -16 -6 -6 -5 -2 -4 -4 -13 -29 200 MB DIV 37 32 28 34 10 28 35 36 13 24 5 0 -28 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 -5 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 0 6 4 4 LAND (KM) 698 706 719 733 761 893 968 1071 1206 1343 1490 1642 1784 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 106.5 107.3 108.1 109.0 109.9 111.9 113.9 116.0 118.2 120.4 122.6 124.8 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 47 44 37 29 24 15 8 0 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 9. 11. 11. 13. 12. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 30. 35. 36. 35. 31. 21. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 FOUR 07/04/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)