* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042012 07/04/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 44 51 58 60 60 55 50 47 39 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 44 51 58 60 60 55 50 47 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 33 34 37 41 44 46 47 45 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 8 10 11 6 9 6 9 7 12 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -5 -4 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 17 21 18 32 32 15 11 355 11 352 331 349 345 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.5 24.9 24.4 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 144 142 140 136 133 131 126 118 113 108 108 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 74 75 73 71 70 68 69 67 64 63 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 14 14 17 17 18 17 18 17 16 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -22 -15 -16 -12 -5 -1 0 0 0 -6 -16 -36 200 MB DIV 26 27 40 29 35 18 56 24 9 17 -4 -17 -20 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -4 -3 -4 -3 -1 -1 2 6 1 0 LAND (KM) 706 737 767 814 871 964 1090 1210 1321 1438 1621 1785 1912 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.8 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 14.9 15.3 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.3 108.4 109.4 110.4 111.3 113.3 115.7 117.7 119.3 121.3 123.7 126.1 128.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 11 11 9 9 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 47 44 36 29 26 18 13 1 5 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 4. 4. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 14. 21. 28. 30. 30. 25. 20. 17. 9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 FOUR 07/04/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)