* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042012 07/05/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 51 55 58 58 53 47 41 33 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 51 55 58 58 53 47 41 33 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 40 42 43 42 39 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 11 16 12 9 5 6 7 13 13 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 1 1 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 18 23 30 30 34 18 353 6 349 326 323 338 349 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.1 25.1 24.6 24.3 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 142 141 139 135 134 131 124 115 110 106 107 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 76 76 75 72 71 71 68 71 69 68 62 57 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 18 17 16 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -3 -3 -2 -4 -4 0 1 0 -9 -17 -28 -42 200 MB DIV 41 55 32 18 18 14 49 0 10 -27 -18 -6 -32 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -5 -4 -2 -4 -2 -4 1 2 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 749 779 823 881 948 1027 1141 1269 1390 1531 1701 1858 1980 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.5 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 108.3 109.3 110.3 111.3 112.2 114.3 116.4 118.4 120.3 122.5 124.9 127.2 129.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 44 37 29 25 23 18 11 6 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 21. 25. 28. 28. 23. 17. 11. 3. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 FOUR 07/05/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)