* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR EP042012 07/05/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 46 54 56 55 51 47 40 35 31 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 46 54 56 55 51 47 40 35 31 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 35 39 41 41 39 36 33 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 13 10 7 5 2 5 5 9 10 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 8 0 5 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 33 36 36 46 50 6 336 359 345 319 333 343 345 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.5 25.9 24.9 24.4 24.2 24.5 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 139 136 131 129 123 112 107 105 109 105 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 77 74 73 71 70 68 68 68 66 61 57 52 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 15 16 17 16 16 15 16 14 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 2 1 0 0 2 -2 0 0 1 -11 -15 -30 -36 200 MB DIV 59 47 39 22 16 45 44 17 16 -5 -18 -22 -26 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -4 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 1 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 776 826 887 957 972 1047 1177 1335 1477 1638 1807 1973 2166 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.4 111.4 112.5 113.5 115.6 117.7 120.0 122.2 124.4 126.7 129.2 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 36 28 24 22 17 11 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 24. 26. 25. 21. 17. 10. 5. 1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 FOUR 07/05/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)