* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/05/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 50 53 57 56 51 42 35 29 23 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 50 53 57 56 51 42 35 29 23 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 42 44 45 45 44 40 36 32 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 10 8 7 6 5 4 10 11 13 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 0 0 0 0 1 5 1 3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 20 28 37 38 13 344 352 337 328 335 342 351 4 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.5 26.3 25.5 24.4 24.2 24.3 24.4 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 137 133 129 127 118 107 105 107 108 99 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 72 70 67 68 67 66 59 56 49 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 15 16 15 15 17 17 18 15 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -2 -6 -4 -8 -8 -7 -3 -9 -15 -21 -37 -39 200 MB DIV 54 42 30 23 27 30 23 16 -21 -13 -25 -14 -20 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -4 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 2 3 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 792 858 933 966 987 1079 1228 1363 1505 1690 1883 2059 2255 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.6 15.7 15.8 16.1 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.1 112.1 113.2 114.3 116.4 118.5 120.7 122.9 125.3 127.9 130.5 133.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 27 23 23 20 15 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 1. -1. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 19. 22. 21. 17. 7. 0. -6. -12. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/05/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)