* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/05/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 70 71 69 66 56 47 40 32 25 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 67 70 71 69 66 56 47 40 32 25 V (KT) LGE mod 50 56 61 64 66 66 62 56 49 42 36 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 8 7 9 4 6 6 7 9 10 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 0 -1 3 0 1 0 0 1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 21 20 23 28 343 301 315 325 321 345 334 352 347 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 25.8 24.8 24.1 23.9 24.3 23.7 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 137 134 132 130 122 111 104 103 107 101 97 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 73 73 71 69 68 66 64 59 55 46 40 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 14 15 16 15 16 16 15 14 14 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -1 -2 -5 -1 -2 -3 2 -13 -17 -26 -33 -38 200 MB DIV 56 32 25 19 32 29 32 44 -13 -21 -36 -21 -16 700-850 TADV -9 -6 -5 -3 -4 -4 -1 1 1 4 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 885 963 999 1024 1060 1178 1320 1453 1601 1773 1973 2204 2038 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.2 112.3 113.4 114.5 115.5 117.6 119.9 122.1 124.3 126.7 129.6 132.6 135.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 13 14 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 21 17 11 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 4. 2. 1. 1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 20. 21. 20. 16. 6. -3. -10. -18. -25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/05/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.9%)