* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 67 71 74 72 73 65 52 44 35 27 18 V (KT) LAND 55 61 67 71 74 72 73 65 52 44 35 27 18 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 65 68 68 65 58 51 45 39 34 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 2 7 6 6 5 10 8 6 5 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 3 0 1 1 6 0 2 5 3 8 3 SHEAR DIR 19 10 17 303 271 310 9 307 348 338 352 331 256 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.3 24.4 24.1 24.5 24.2 23.5 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 133 132 127 117 108 105 109 106 99 99 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 5 700-500 MB RH 74 72 71 72 68 68 64 59 57 49 43 37 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 21 22 23 22 24 24 20 18 15 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 5 5 1 9 5 5 19 14 11 8 2 1 -11 200 MB DIV 46 49 71 61 65 19 54 13 -11 -17 -10 -17 -11 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -5 -4 -3 -4 2 2 4 4 3 1 3 LAND (KM) 986 1014 1046 1088 1140 1282 1406 1567 1758 1942 2164 2157 1824 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.7 114.7 115.8 116.8 119.0 121.2 123.6 126.1 128.8 131.7 134.7 137.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 14 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 17 11 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 7. 7. 2. 0. -4. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 19. 17. 18. 10. -3. -11. -20. -28. -37. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/06/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)