* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/06/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 61 62 58 52 44 37 30 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 61 61 62 58 52 44 37 30 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 58 57 54 50 44 38 33 29 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 5 5 4 1 8 7 5 5 6 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 -1 1 4 2 0 0 1 2 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 10 351 333 329 306 121 270 295 320 345 311 277 246 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.7 25.9 24.7 24.1 24.1 24.3 23.5 23.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 133 133 131 123 110 105 105 108 99 97 98 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 72 71 69 68 63 58 54 45 40 33 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 20 21 20 20 21 21 20 19 17 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 4 6 5 12 16 5 10 8 5 -5 -11 200 MB DIV 55 59 54 56 53 57 44 -7 -26 -36 -17 -11 -12 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -4 -5 -4 0 0 -2 4 2 2 -5 4 LAND (KM) 1021 1051 1090 1149 1216 1351 1468 1634 1831 2036 2262 1945 1648 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.7 115.7 116.8 117.9 120.1 122.3 124.7 127.4 130.4 133.6 136.6 139.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 13 14 15 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 11 6 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 3. -3. -11. -18. -25. -34. -42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/06/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)