* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/06/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 67 69 66 60 53 45 36 29 21 18 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 67 69 66 60 53 45 36 29 21 18 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 63 62 60 54 48 43 39 36 33 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 7 2 4 5 6 5 7 4 3 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 6 6 1 3 -2 2 1 6 5 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 328 353 295 242 335 283 341 11 12 33 305 274 312 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 26.7 26.4 25.3 24.7 24.3 24.5 23.9 23.8 24.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 131 128 117 111 107 109 104 103 106 109 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 74 73 69 71 69 65 57 49 47 41 36 35 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 22 22 23 23 22 21 20 17 16 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 8 7 5 3 9 16 9 14 10 16 21 18 13 200 MB DIV 59 68 63 76 70 -1 -13 -26 -33 -26 -5 0 -16 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -7 -8 -1 -1 -2 6 7 7 -1 3 -1 LAND (KM) 1107 1164 1229 1295 1363 1488 1661 1860 2019 2263 2014 1650 1277 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.9 16.0 15.7 15.8 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.5 116.6 117.6 118.7 119.7 121.9 124.4 127.1 129.8 132.9 136.2 139.7 143.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 12 13 13 14 15 16 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 8 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -5. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 6. 0. -7. -15. -24. -31. -39. -42. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/06/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)