* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/07/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 71 74 73 68 55 48 37 30 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 69 71 74 73 68 55 48 37 30 23 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 68 66 63 54 46 40 36 33 30 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 4 2 7 8 5 8 5 2 3 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 8 4 1 -3 5 1 4 7 8 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 326 301 282 274 222 314 5 23 66 26 67 324 348 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.9 24.8 24.2 24.4 24.3 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 131 127 123 112 106 108 107 100 102 106 109 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 69 71 67 66 61 53 49 43 41 38 37 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 22 24 24 25 20 21 17 16 14 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 10 8 6 8 12 13 11 14 11 14 11 10 2 200 MB DIV 86 96 97 61 45 -13 -7 -24 -25 -19 -32 -24 -10 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -8 0 0 -1 2 8 7 4 -2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1151 1210 1276 1348 1407 1552 1723 1912 2131 2204 1884 1555 1207 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.9 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.4 117.5 118.5 119.6 120.7 123.0 125.6 128.4 131.3 134.3 137.4 140.6 144.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. -2. -2. -7. -8. -10. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 8. 3. -10. -17. -28. -35. -42. -50. -55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/07/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)