* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/07/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 78 75 63 53 40 29 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 78 75 63 53 40 29 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 76 75 71 66 57 49 42 36 31 26 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 3 4 7 5 11 7 8 8 11 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 2 6 5 -1 2 2 7 5 4 6 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 206 230 181 321 313 324 332 340 316 334 332 317 309 SST (C) 26.6 26.2 25.8 25.1 24.6 24.2 24.4 24.1 23.4 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 130 126 122 115 110 106 108 105 98 101 105 108 112 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 70 65 64 62 58 53 51 46 40 38 35 32 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 25 24 23 20 20 18 17 15 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR -2 2 6 9 7 2 7 5 4 8 5 5 6 200 MB DIV 68 60 28 -23 -24 7 -29 -33 -26 -32 -15 -4 -17 700-850 TADV -8 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 9 7 0 2 0 3 0 LAND (KM) 1275 1344 1405 1475 1552 1731 1920 2133 2162 1829 1488 1148 821 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.4 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.7 120.8 122.0 123.2 125.7 128.5 131.5 134.6 137.8 141.1 144.4 147.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 16 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -15. -20. -26. -29. -31. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -3. -3. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 3. 0. -12. -22. -35. -46. -55. -63. -71. -75. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/07/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)