* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/07/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 82 79 77 63 54 40 31 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 82 82 79 77 63 54 40 31 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 81 79 75 69 59 50 43 37 33 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 8 6 5 9 10 10 6 17 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 -4 0 2 2 2 0 4 -3 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 290 200 263 317 296 268 339 344 360 332 333 327 310 SST (C) 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.7 24.4 24.7 23.9 23.6 23.8 24.3 24.5 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 124 119 113 111 108 112 103 100 103 108 110 114 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 62 63 56 49 44 39 37 34 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 24 22 23 19 20 17 17 14 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 2 6 10 5 1 8 10 7 3 5 0 9 -1 200 MB DIV 47 49 -10 -25 -8 -23 -61 -22 -22 -35 -13 -29 -34 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -3 -2 -1 8 1 1 -3 5 -6 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1366 1432 1505 1576 1652 1845 2050 2270 2035 1700 1355 1024 723 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 119.6 120.8 121.9 123.1 124.2 126.8 129.9 132.9 135.9 139.1 142.5 145.8 148.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 14 15 14 15 16 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -18. -24. -30. -33. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. 1. -4. -3. -8. -7. -11. -13. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. -1. -3. -17. -26. -40. -49. -59. -66. -72. -76. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/07/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)