* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052012 07/07/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 52 65 77 84 83 84 80 75 73 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 52 65 77 84 83 84 80 75 73 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 44 53 62 69 73 74 73 70 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 2 3 4 2 7 13 9 14 14 17 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 0 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -8 -6 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 333 343 338 137 114 357 151 133 146 109 101 105 106 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.0 27.8 27.3 26.7 26.0 24.8 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 158 155 149 144 142 137 130 123 111 99 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 72 73 74 74 74 71 72 70 66 60 58 55 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 14 15 16 19 20 20 23 20 19 19 850 MB ENV VOR 10 11 9 8 12 11 24 44 67 69 60 59 42 200 MB DIV 12 24 31 62 100 114 107 84 40 19 17 22 6 700-850 TADV 1 0 -2 -2 0 -3 3 2 0 -2 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 767 795 825 847 855 926 972 1033 1058 1053 1091 1144 1228 LAT (DEG N) 9.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 100.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 39 37 34 39 46 38 30 31 22 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 12. 11. 15. 12. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 22. 35. 47. 54. 53. 54. 50. 45. 43. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 FIVE 07/07/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 67% is 5.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 42% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 29% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 7.2 times the sample mean( 3.9%)