* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 92 91 87 80 66 54 43 33 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 92 91 87 80 66 54 43 33 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 92 89 83 77 64 54 46 40 36 32 29 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 4 4 3 5 7 6 7 11 14 12 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 3 5 5 6 5 7 3 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 69 331 294 331 297 316 356 358 24 353 1 14 355 SST (C) 25.9 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.5 24.6 24.6 23.8 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 118 114 111 109 110 110 102 105 108 111 112 116 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 60 58 57 53 51 44 39 35 35 32 32 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 26 24 23 21 20 18 16 14 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 3 11 4 7 7 15 12 11 18 17 17 24 16 200 MB DIV 52 30 -17 -12 7 -35 -30 -27 -37 -47 -24 -28 -8 700-850 TADV -6 0 0 2 6 8 3 -2 1 0 -1 3 3 LAND (KM) 1416 1493 1576 1664 1759 1961 2175 2217 1883 1555 1227 919 636 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.9 123.1 124.4 125.7 128.4 131.3 134.3 137.5 140.7 144.0 147.2 150.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 15 15 16 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -19. -26. -33. -39. -43. -45. -47. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -3. -10. -24. -36. -47. -57. -65. -71. -76. -79. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/08/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)