* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE EP052012 07/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 46 53 60 72 85 91 97 94 92 88 86 V (KT) LAND 35 40 46 53 60 72 85 91 97 94 92 88 86 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 48 52 60 68 74 79 83 83 78 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 3 3 4 7 4 6 13 10 12 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 0 1 -3 0 -4 -1 -7 -6 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 258 256 128 137 64 201 128 110 102 95 74 90 94 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.7 25.6 24.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 157 155 152 145 142 139 133 131 119 108 99 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.0 -52.3 -50.9 -51.8 -50.6 -51.2 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 74 74 73 72 71 70 68 68 63 59 55 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 18 22 23 27 27 26 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 12 7 7 11 13 13 36 51 77 78 91 84 78 200 MB DIV 20 37 72 92 112 105 103 69 84 7 43 -8 15 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 0 0 -1 4 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 755 775 791 816 860 928 1016 1083 1102 1158 1237 1316 1397 LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 15.8 16.2 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 102.5 103.8 105.0 106.4 107.7 110.1 112.0 113.7 115.4 117.2 119.3 121.0 122.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 14 13 11 9 9 9 10 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 40 45 41 31 31 28 14 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 15. 21. 20. 20. 18. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 25. 37. 50. 56. 62. 59. 57. 53. 51. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 FIVE 07/08/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 73% is 9.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 63% is 11.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 63% is 18.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)