* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/08/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 86 81 74 57 45 35 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 90 86 81 74 57 45 35 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 89 84 77 70 58 48 41 35 30 27 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 4 3 3 8 8 6 8 18 14 7 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 3 5 8 6 8 4 7 -4 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 334 277 304 304 295 324 3 7 342 347 348 331 339 SST (C) 25.4 24.8 24.5 24.3 24.2 24.5 23.9 23.5 23.7 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 118 112 109 107 106 109 103 99 101 106 110 112 116 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 48 51 47 40 38 35 35 32 33 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 23 23 23 20 19 19 16 15 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 12 6 1 -3 3 4 1 4 13 13 26 26 26 200 MB DIV 45 0 -9 -16 -40 -48 -43 -27 -24 -5 -26 -11 -11 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 6 6 4 -2 4 -4 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 1474 1548 1630 1721 1814 1996 2248 2042 1718 1378 1039 777 577 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.2 15.9 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.7 123.0 124.2 125.5 126.8 129.6 132.8 135.8 138.9 142.2 145.6 148.5 151.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 16 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -21. -29. -36. -42. -46. -48. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -6. -7. -8. -11. -13. -16. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -9. -16. -33. -45. -55. -66. -74. -82. -85. -89. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/08/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)