* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/08/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 58 67 82 91 99 97 89 86 83 77 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 58 67 82 91 99 97 89 86 83 77 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 49 53 58 67 76 83 87 88 84 75 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 4 2 5 4 9 14 12 17 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -1 -1 0 2 -3 -6 -3 -4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 263 313 357 50 138 159 103 71 90 105 92 94 67 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.3 27.1 26.6 25.3 24.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 154 150 148 143 141 136 134 130 116 106 101 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.7 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 72 71 73 70 70 66 64 60 60 52 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 15 14 17 21 22 25 24 21 21 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 10 12 12 26 39 62 66 76 73 72 71 200 MB DIV 33 61 101 116 124 119 61 34 35 11 12 8 13 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 2 0 -3 -1 -3 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 811 830 854 886 927 979 1092 1120 1160 1230 1288 1405 1563 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.8 13.4 13.9 14.4 15.0 15.8 16.1 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 104.0 105.4 106.7 107.9 109.1 111.1 113.1 114.8 116.4 118.2 120.1 122.1 124.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 11 10 10 8 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 43 43 40 35 30 33 24 11 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 13. 18. 17. 12. 13. 12. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 18. 27. 42. 51. 59. 57. 49. 46. 43. 37. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/08/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 75% is 6.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 66% is 8.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 54% is 9.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 54% is 17.8 times the sample mean( 3.9%)