* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/08/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 56 65 73 84 89 95 94 87 84 77 71 V (KT) LAND 45 50 56 65 73 84 89 95 94 87 84 77 71 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 54 58 62 70 78 84 86 84 77 68 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 3 3 5 8 12 8 13 8 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -3 -2 0 -8 -5 -1 -2 0 2 1 SHEAR DIR 242 301 12 64 172 104 83 114 123 105 120 63 40 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.8 25.9 24.9 23.9 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 151 148 146 143 139 134 131 122 112 102 99 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.1 -51.5 -50.6 -51.5 -50.8 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 72 72 71 70 62 56 54 52 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 16 16 19 20 21 20 24 25 23 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 15 16 19 35 53 65 76 84 76 80 74 200 MB DIV 62 80 104 116 123 115 27 43 37 31 -2 -5 -14 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 823 839 870 912 947 1031 1091 1119 1188 1274 1341 1483 1675 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.1 12.4 13.1 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.5 107.7 108.9 110.1 112.1 113.9 115.7 117.5 119.3 121.0 123.3 125.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 43 44 41 37 30 32 27 13 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 8. 14. 15. 12. 12. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 20. 28. 39. 44. 50. 49. 42. 39. 32. 26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/08/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 66% is 5.6 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 61% is 7.7 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 48% is 8.6 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 48% is 16.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)