* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/08/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 69 76 83 92 94 95 83 82 76 68 64 V (KT) LAND 55 61 69 76 83 92 94 95 83 82 76 68 64 V (KT) LGE mod 55 61 67 72 77 84 89 90 86 79 70 62 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 4 7 12 14 18 11 11 10 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -3 -3 -6 -4 -8 -1 -1 0 2 3 SHEAR DIR 260 29 104 132 106 90 111 125 129 117 99 79 68 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.9 26.3 25.4 24.3 23.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 147 145 144 140 135 132 126 117 106 100 100 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -51.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 71 67 63 63 55 53 49 47 42 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 19 20 21 23 22 24 19 22 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 15 20 32 47 70 80 79 78 74 78 55 200 MB DIV 80 103 106 111 110 26 31 26 37 26 -11 -5 -23 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 1 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 850 885 928 957 1001 1097 1106 1162 1244 1332 1443 1609 1774 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.6 14.3 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 106.8 108.1 109.3 110.4 111.5 113.5 115.3 117.0 118.6 120.5 122.5 124.9 127.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 9 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 36 35 34 28 20 16 15 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 11. 4. 8. 5. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 21. 28. 37. 39. 40. 28. 27. 21. 13. 9. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/08/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 47% is 8.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 47% is 16.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)