* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 76 84 90 95 103 103 100 96 87 82 78 V (KT) LAND 60 68 76 84 90 95 103 103 100 96 87 82 78 V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 74 80 85 94 98 98 95 91 84 76 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 5 7 7 14 12 7 13 11 14 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -5 -7 -6 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 32 85 81 66 66 83 96 102 85 68 63 86 103 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.2 26.4 25.4 24.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 144 144 141 138 137 135 127 117 112 107 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.1 -51.4 -51.5 -50.7 -51.6 -50.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 71 69 67 63 59 57 52 49 44 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 20 22 22 21 20 23 24 24 23 19 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 14 13 15 25 31 45 57 68 80 77 76 71 58 200 MB DIV 105 111 133 122 91 46 63 11 46 4 -3 -14 -20 700-850 TADV 0 -5 -1 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 0 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 904 947 986 1016 1055 1143 1195 1270 1364 1463 1572 1707 1891 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.7 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.3 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.9 110.0 111.0 111.9 113.9 115.7 117.3 118.8 120.6 122.6 124.8 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 8 9 10 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 32 29 27 30 22 17 19 7 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 9. 10. 10. 9. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 24. 30. 35. 43. 43. 40. 36. 27. 23. 18. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/09/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 48% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 46% is 8.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 46% is 15.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)