* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/09/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 67 61 56 46 36 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 74 67 61 56 46 36 27 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 74 70 65 60 52 46 40 36 32 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 2 3 4 12 19 19 8 5 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 5 4 3 2 -2 -1 8 5 4 3 SHEAR DIR 316 313 323 21 261 349 320 360 343 336 325 320 311 SST (C) 24.4 24.6 24.7 24.5 24.1 23.8 24.1 24.3 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 108 110 111 109 105 102 105 107 109 111 116 119 120 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 45 46 43 42 40 35 35 37 34 34 34 36 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 17 17 18 17 15 14 12 11 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -5 0 2 0 1 7 4 5 6 5 15 16 13 200 MB DIV -41 -32 -46 -40 -30 -32 -30 -18 -36 -21 -29 -13 -23 700-850 TADV 4 2 3 0 2 -2 6 3 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1862 1957 2058 2168 2283 2059 1736 1426 1131 866 636 453 385 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.8 15.5 15.4 15.5 LONG(DEG W) 127.0 128.4 129.8 131.3 132.8 135.8 138.9 141.9 144.8 147.6 150.5 153.4 156.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 14 14 13 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -24. -29. -33. -35. -36. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -24. -34. -44. -53. -61. -67. -71. -75. -75. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/09/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)