* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/09/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 82 88 97 104 102 98 92 86 76 73 64 V (KT) LAND 65 73 82 88 97 104 102 98 92 86 76 73 64 V (KT) LGE mod 65 72 78 83 87 93 94 93 89 82 74 65 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 5 11 13 15 13 17 11 10 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -2 -5 -6 -4 -5 -3 -1 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 93 98 66 70 89 87 99 84 97 75 106 114 178 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.6 25.5 24.7 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 144 144 143 138 138 137 129 118 110 105 105 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 73 73 73 70 69 65 61 59 54 50 46 41 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 22 21 25 26 24 23 23 22 17 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 22 31 39 63 67 81 88 84 77 62 49 200 MB DIV 111 113 114 117 96 61 13 14 20 25 -11 -19 -25 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -2 -4 -1 0 0 0 5 LAND (KM) 927 961 1001 1043 1095 1156 1228 1301 1397 1483 1613 1756 1880 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.3 12.7 13.0 13.5 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.8 110.8 111.8 112.8 114.7 116.3 117.9 119.8 121.7 123.8 126.0 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 32 29 27 29 27 20 16 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 6. 9. 9. 7. 7. 6. 0. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 23. 32. 39. 37. 33. 27. 21. 11. 8. -1. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/09/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 52% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 49% is 8.8 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 49% is 17.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)