* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/09/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 63 58 52 48 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 63 58 52 48 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 64 59 54 50 43 37 32 29 27 25 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 6 6 6 15 16 12 5 1 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 2 2 7 -3 0 4 8 10 8 1 SHEAR DIR 317 323 217 232 282 311 350 355 351 19 163 201 239 SST (C) 24.8 25.0 24.7 24.3 23.9 24.2 24.4 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 112 114 111 107 103 107 108 111 112 113 116 120 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 44 41 42 41 41 34 35 33 36 33 37 36 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 19 19 20 17 18 15 13 12 11 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -4 -6 1 0 0 11 1 15 9 21 20 23 200 MB DIV -36 -46 -40 -33 -30 -20 -13 -31 -25 0 -29 -17 -20 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 4 0 3 2 1 0 1 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1961 2062 2167 2286 2227 1914 1592 1289 1018 758 555 413 453 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 128.4 129.8 131.2 132.7 134.2 137.2 140.3 143.3 146.1 149.0 151.8 154.6 157.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 14 14 14 13 13 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -8. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -3. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -18. -22. -34. -41. -50. -56. -59. -61. -64. -65. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/09/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -37.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)