* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/09/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 96 105 109 112 109 106 99 91 82 73 66 59 V (KT) LAND 85 96 105 109 112 109 106 99 91 82 73 66 59 V (KT) LGE mod 85 95 101 103 104 101 97 93 87 78 69 60 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 5 11 8 18 9 9 10 9 3 6 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -5 0 -9 -5 2 3 4 1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 162 120 103 95 86 107 96 88 109 94 33 55 1 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.5 25.3 24.5 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 143 143 143 139 138 134 128 116 109 106 105 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -50.5 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 700-500 MB RH 70 73 71 69 69 67 62 59 56 49 46 40 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 24 26 25 24 24 25 24 24 22 19 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 12 25 38 39 46 63 76 86 89 83 76 59 52 200 MB DIV 117 122 85 41 36 48 4 36 14 16 -15 -33 -4 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 -1 -5 -2 -3 -2 0 2 -3 0 2 LAND (KM) 905 943 993 1053 1107 1135 1213 1291 1379 1483 1635 1791 1944 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.5 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.5 111.5 112.5 113.5 115.3 117.1 118.7 120.4 122.4 124.8 127.3 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 29 25 24 26 20 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -23. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 7. 11. 12. 12. 9. 7. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 4. -1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 11. 20. 24. 27. 24. 21. 14. 6. -3. -12. -19. -26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/09/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 3.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 49% is 7.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 49% is 11.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 49% is 21.5 times the sample mean( 3.9%)