* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/09/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 57 52 46 37 29 21 18 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 64 57 52 46 37 29 21 18 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 65 59 55 50 44 38 35 32 30 30 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 6 6 7 15 10 5 5 4 2 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 2 2 3 0 6 3 1 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 313 266 218 309 318 300 360 355 40 120 208 239 283 SST (C) 24.9 24.7 24.2 23.9 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.6 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 107 103 104 107 110 111 112 115 119 122 124 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 41 41 43 41 39 36 36 34 32 34 34 35 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 19 19 18 17 16 14 12 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -5 0 -2 4 10 5 12 7 14 14 17 13 200 MB DIV -43 -30 -23 -24 -27 -20 -28 -36 -11 -27 -21 -17 -24 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 -5 5 0 2 -2 0 -2 -3 -1 LAND (KM) 2066 2180 2299 2201 2041 1746 1419 1130 877 651 467 416 639 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.5 15.2 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 129.9 131.4 132.9 134.5 136.0 138.8 142.0 144.9 147.6 150.3 153.0 156.2 159.9 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 14 14 15 13 13 13 14 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -7. -12. -16. -20. -23. -24. -25. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -5. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -18. -24. -33. -41. -49. -52. -53. -57. -58. -59. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/09/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)