* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/09/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 104 109 108 112 105 97 86 75 65 52 43 34 V (KT) LAND 95 104 109 108 112 105 97 86 75 65 52 43 34 V (KT) LGE mod 95 104 109 109 108 102 96 88 78 67 56 47 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 8 10 11 14 13 13 10 5 3 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -3 0 1 -2 -1 1 2 4 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 96 122 101 113 93 104 96 110 124 130 265 251 224 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.4 25.4 24.4 24.0 24.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 143 142 140 138 134 127 117 107 103 104 102 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 67 67 65 68 59 58 50 48 42 38 34 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 24 23 20 26 24 23 21 20 18 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 27 42 44 55 76 78 99 88 79 70 52 45 17 200 MB DIV 108 79 30 25 59 12 -1 -7 -1 0 -24 -19 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -4 -3 -2 -5 0 1 1 0 7 5 LAND (KM) 937 985 1042 1090 1102 1154 1238 1320 1416 1530 1689 1826 1996 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.5 112.5 113.5 114.4 116.3 118.2 119.9 121.7 123.7 126.1 128.4 130.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 22 23 23 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -18. -24. -30. -36. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 12. 12. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 14. 13. 17. 10. 2. -8. -20. -30. -43. -52. -61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/09/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 30.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 6.9 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)