* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 107 106 106 103 96 88 79 67 57 50 41 32 V (KT) LAND 105 107 106 106 103 96 88 79 67 57 50 41 32 V (KT) LGE mod 105 108 107 105 102 95 89 80 70 61 52 46 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 10 11 14 11 18 14 8 4 2 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 0 1 1 0 -2 -1 4 2 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 151 124 111 100 116 110 77 99 116 120 150 183 173 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.7 25.6 24.5 24.0 23.8 23.9 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 142 140 139 137 130 119 108 103 101 102 98 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.3 -51.9 -50.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 66 63 56 52 49 43 40 38 37 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 20 23 23 23 23 23 20 17 16 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 37 43 53 69 69 86 86 75 69 64 51 49 30 200 MB DIV 61 34 38 54 33 6 32 -11 -12 -16 -29 -6 -9 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -4 -4 -2 -5 -2 0 3 -2 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 992 1059 1098 1111 1132 1198 1287 1358 1451 1588 1726 1908 2119 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.4 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 111.7 112.8 113.8 114.7 115.6 117.4 119.2 121.0 122.8 124.9 127.3 129.8 132.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 12 14 13 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -19. -27. -35. -42. -48. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. 0. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -4. -8. -9. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. 1. -2. -9. -17. -26. -38. -48. -55. -64. -73. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/10/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)