* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/10/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 50 44 40 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 50 44 40 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 51 48 44 39 35 32 30 27 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 9 9 12 19 16 13 18 20 23 30 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 4 5 4 0 3 2 -2 2 4 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 295 328 330 333 338 359 352 312 296 302 288 296 287 SST (C) 24.2 23.9 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.8 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 107 104 104 107 108 111 113 113 117 121 124 124 127 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 40 39 38 36 34 34 30 33 30 32 32 30 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 15 16 15 13 12 10 9 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 5 8 11 10 7 3 7 8 10 1 -4 200 MB DIV -29 -33 -31 -29 -25 -42 -53 -27 -23 -22 -28 -17 -7 700-850 TADV 4 -2 -3 1 3 0 2 0 -1 0 1 3 1 LAND (KM) 2314 2189 2023 1872 1722 1431 1119 846 615 447 507 737 969 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.1 14.8 14.6 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 133.0 134.6 136.2 137.7 139.1 142.0 145.1 148.0 150.9 154.2 157.7 161.0 164.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -20. -28. -35. -41. -46. -50. -55. -58. -60. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/10/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)