* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/10/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 119 114 108 96 78 67 58 46 38 28 19 V (KT) LAND 115 119 119 114 108 96 78 67 58 46 38 28 19 V (KT) LGE mod 115 118 116 111 105 94 83 73 63 54 47 40 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 13 17 20 14 20 15 9 3 8 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 2 0 -2 0 -1 2 1 5 5 1 4 SHEAR DIR 116 116 111 118 109 98 100 110 114 112 159 176 170 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.2 25.2 24.3 24.0 24.2 23.9 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 140 138 136 132 125 115 106 103 105 102 97 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 61 61 59 51 47 43 39 38 34 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 21 24 22 23 23 18 18 19 15 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 41 56 62 67 78 87 83 76 75 62 65 49 51 200 MB DIV 36 56 53 18 -9 42 5 12 -15 -21 -9 0 -11 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -3 0 -4 -5 0 0 1 -3 3 0 9 LAND (KM) 1042 1086 1096 1109 1132 1206 1293 1391 1524 1689 1841 1996 2161 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.5 114.5 115.5 116.4 118.1 119.9 121.7 123.8 126.1 128.5 130.7 132.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 13 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -18. -27. -37. -46. -54. -60. -64. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -8. -5. -2. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -7. -7. -6. -10. -11. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. -1. -7. -19. -37. -48. -57. -69. -77. -87. -96. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/10/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)