* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/10/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 45 41 37 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 50 45 41 37 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 46 42 39 34 31 28 25 22 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 8 12 18 20 11 16 29 27 32 27 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 7 3 0 0 5 1 -5 1 0 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 320 335 322 334 345 352 349 297 304 293 289 280 279 SST (C) 24.0 24.0 24.3 24.5 24.5 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.8 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 107 109 109 112 113 115 119 121 122 123 126 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 40 37 35 35 36 31 34 29 32 30 28 31 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 17 16 14 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -1 3 9 11 9 5 7 3 13 13 10 0 -1 200 MB DIV -30 -30 -25 -18 -45 -49 -39 -16 -22 -7 -14 0 3 700-850 TADV -2 -4 0 0 -2 2 0 -2 1 4 1 3 1 LAND (KM) 2223 2068 1913 1757 1603 1301 1028 755 533 422 553 800 963 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.0 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 134.3 135.8 137.3 138.8 140.3 143.3 146.1 149.2 152.4 155.7 159.0 162.1 165.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -28. -37. -43. -50. -57. -64. -69. -71. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/10/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 21.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)