* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/10/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 113 108 105 92 78 69 60 48 39 29 22 V (KT) LAND 115 115 113 108 105 92 78 69 60 48 39 29 22 V (KT) LGE mod 115 115 111 106 101 92 82 73 64 57 50 43 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 11 16 13 15 16 8 7 4 7 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 6 -2 1 -2 -3 1 1 2 0 3 2 SHEAR DIR 102 124 112 112 95 93 91 73 101 119 168 177 173 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 26.7 25.9 24.8 24.2 24.0 24.1 23.5 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 138 138 137 130 122 111 105 104 105 99 95 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.2 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 69 65 66 62 61 54 51 47 44 38 42 34 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 21 23 22 23 21 19 19 19 17 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 55 61 66 74 84 87 81 75 72 64 63 54 57 200 MB DIV 65 42 5 16 30 40 1 -6 -33 -21 -5 -5 1 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -6 -5 -2 -1 0 0 -1 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 1090 1095 1111 1140 1178 1259 1354 1459 1592 1751 1937 2143 2063 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.7 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.3 115.2 116.2 117.1 118.8 120.7 122.6 124.7 127.2 129.9 132.6 135.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 10 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -28. -38. -47. -55. -61. -66. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -6. -3. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. -4. -7. -7. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -7. -10. -23. -37. -46. -55. -67. -76. -86. -93. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/10/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)