* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/10/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 104 100 98 89 80 71 62 51 39 32 27 V (KT) LAND 110 107 104 100 98 89 80 71 62 51 39 32 27 V (KT) LGE mod 110 106 102 98 93 85 77 68 60 53 45 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 17 16 17 15 8 8 0 0 4 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -5 0 -1 0 0 0 6 8 0 3 0 SHEAR DIR 95 103 101 109 104 91 82 85 128 183 167 205 107 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.2 26.5 25.5 24.5 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 141 139 138 138 136 128 118 108 103 103 100 96 94 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 67 68 63 64 61 50 50 46 42 40 36 35 33 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 21 22 23 21 20 19 18 16 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 57 65 68 77 84 79 70 62 51 52 38 45 33 200 MB DIV 40 34 12 15 49 14 0 -15 -29 9 -2 -7 9 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -4 -3 -3 -2 0 2 0 0 1 7 -2 LAND (KM) 1099 1115 1139 1174 1217 1301 1379 1475 1612 1749 1919 2120 2091 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.7 17.9 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 114.1 115.0 115.9 116.9 117.8 119.6 121.3 123.1 125.1 127.5 130.2 132.7 135.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 11 13 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 9 7 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -16. -26. -36. -45. -52. -57. -62. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -8. -5. -1. 3. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. -3. -4. -5. -10. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -12. -21. -30. -39. -48. -59. -71. -78. -83. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/10/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)