* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 86 83 83 75 65 59 48 36 26 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 95 89 86 83 83 75 65 59 48 36 26 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 89 84 81 78 72 65 57 50 43 37 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 19 12 16 18 18 11 7 1 3 7 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 2 3 -4 -4 0 3 9 3 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 77 89 96 107 84 91 94 67 228 295 209 217 178 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.7 25.9 24.8 24.0 23.7 23.8 23.5 23.1 23.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 137 135 130 122 111 103 100 101 98 94 94 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.9 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 65 62 63 62 57 54 50 45 40 40 34 35 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 20 23 23 25 23 20 20 17 15 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 62 70 77 83 83 77 74 67 50 46 35 41 24 200 MB DIV 37 19 -9 24 14 -4 -4 -32 -24 -12 -28 4 1 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 -2 0 2 3 -1 3 0 3 LAND (KM) 1096 1124 1158 1197 1244 1317 1420 1554 1689 1852 2055 2163 1895 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.3 17.6 17.7 18.0 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 116.0 116.8 117.8 118.7 120.4 122.3 124.5 126.9 129.3 131.8 134.3 136.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 9 9 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -19. -28. -35. -41. -45. -50. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -6. -2. 1. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -3. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -12. -12. -20. -30. -36. -47. -59. -69. -75. -80. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)