* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/11/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 84 79 77 72 66 56 47 40 31 22 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 90 84 79 77 72 66 56 47 40 31 22 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 80 77 74 68 60 52 46 40 35 29 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 20 15 16 17 9 6 4 3 9 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 -1 0 0 4 2 8 1 1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 85 88 97 101 109 110 106 73 125 213 238 214 210 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.5 25.4 24.5 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.4 23.2 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 132 128 117 108 103 103 100 97 95 95 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 61 59 59 55 52 50 45 41 39 35 34 31 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 22 22 20 20 17 13 13 11 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 71 75 78 78 76 65 63 46 39 22 27 15 24 200 MB DIV 14 -2 2 5 -10 16 13 -30 -1 -1 -20 9 -10 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -4 -5 -2 2 4 -4 2 0 6 -2 7 LAND (KM) 1138 1175 1217 1259 1295 1393 1498 1654 1795 1976 2183 2019 1744 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.2 17.6 17.6 17.8 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.0 117.8 118.7 119.5 121.5 123.3 125.6 128.2 130.8 133.2 135.7 138.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 12 13 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 416 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -26. -32. -37. -41. -45. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -4. -1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -5. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -13. -18. -24. -34. -43. -50. -59. -68. -75. -80. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/11/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)