* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DANIEL EP042012 07/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 27 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 27 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 31 29 27 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 22 17 16 25 45 46 43 45 46 42 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -3 -1 -3 -4 -15 -10 -2 -8 -7 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 344 343 340 328 303 291 296 299 298 293 295 287 280 SST (C) 24.5 24.6 24.8 24.8 24.8 25.0 25.4 25.7 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 109 110 112 113 113 115 119 123 124 125 128 130 130 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 40 38 35 36 37 32 30 29 29 30 36 37 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 2 0 -2 3 2 -5 2 3 3 -2 -1 -1 -1 200 MB DIV -43 -36 -29 -17 -27 -8 -28 -10 -7 -2 7 36 13 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 0 0 LAND (KM) 1593 1446 1301 1153 1009 746 520 456 613 856 1058 1226 1358 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.2 14.8 14.5 14.3 14.0 14.0 14.2 LONG(DEG W) 140.4 141.9 143.3 144.8 146.3 149.3 152.6 155.8 159.1 162.2 165.3 167.8 169.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 16 15 14 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 25 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -13. -19. -24. -26. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -11. -18. -26. -36. -44. -50. -53. -55. -55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042012 DANIEL 07/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -30.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)