* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EMILIA EP052012 07/11/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 83 80 75 64 57 48 37 28 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 87 83 80 75 64 57 48 37 28 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 85 82 78 69 60 52 45 38 32 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 16 16 19 13 5 2 4 4 4 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 -4 -8 -2 0 7 7 4 3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 87 92 93 104 101 96 84 37 285 239 263 185 231 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.0 24.8 24.0 23.9 24.0 23.5 23.2 23.2 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 131 127 123 112 103 102 103 99 95 95 96 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.8 -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 53 55 48 44 40 38 34 37 35 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 23 21 21 20 18 18 16 15 13 12 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 71 77 78 77 74 63 54 43 41 28 38 32 49 200 MB DIV 14 10 12 -18 1 6 -11 -27 -15 -13 2 0 -7 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -1 0 2 2 0 3 4 -4 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1171 1208 1251 1289 1326 1451 1612 1750 1907 2104 2070 1814 1591 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.2 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.9 118.7 119.6 120.4 122.6 125.1 127.4 129.7 132.3 135.2 137.6 139.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 12 12 11 12 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -20. -28. -35. -40. -44. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -6. -2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -15. -26. -33. -42. -53. -62. -71. -78. -81. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP052012 EMILIA 07/11/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)